Resumption Of Work And Production! These ETF Opportunities Are Here

Resumption Of Work And Production! These ETF Opportunities Are Here

Things are moving fast for the better

To say that the darkest cloud that hangs over people's hearts at the moment is the Shanghai epidemic and the impact of Shanghai epidemic on the domestic economy.

Resumption Of Work And Production! These ETF Opportunities Are Here

This wave of the epidemic has also made Shanghai frequently searched and hotly debated. But if you think about it carefully, it's not surprising that Shanghai's performance is actually the "core" of why it has become the Pearl of the Orient. It can also be explained by the investment term "profit and loss homology".

(1) For example, in emerging industries and technological innovation, Shanghai brings together high-caliber talents, and accommodates and absorbs many university graduates for employment every year;

(2) For example, in terms of finance, Shanghai has the Shanghai Stock Exchange, as well as many investment institutions and investment service institutions. It is one of the national investment and financing centers;

(3) For example, for export, Shanghai is China's bridgehead to the Pacific for global trade.

Such highly industrial and commercial division of labor, investment and financing financial center division and global division of labor make Shanghai more dependent on the supply of materials from the hinterland. At the same time, Shanghai is also feeding back to the hinterland and the country through aspects that many people cannot see.

Therefore, this requires us to take a reasonable view of Shanghai's performance. Of course, some birdmen with a demonic spirits will not talk about it. The epidemic has also given Shanghai some rehearsal, and the deficiencies need to be strengthened.

Meanwhile, things are moving in the right direction! There are two main points, let's take a look:

First, is the latest situation of the epidemic.

According to the latest data, 733 local confirmed cases in Shanghai were discharged yesterday, and 19,473 asymptomatic infections were released from centralized isolation.

That is to say after the Shanghai epidemic has experienced a high level in the early stage, not only has there been a downward signal, but the number of people who have been released from isolation is also rapidly increasing.

Lao Zhang estimates that by either the end of April or the beginning of May, the epidemic in Shanghai will be eased and a big step forward will be made to "zero out".

Second, more than 660 companies are listed on the "white list" of resumption companies.

The shutdown of Shanghai and even the Yangtze River Delta region has a relatively large impact on the national economy. According to the data, in addition to the mining industry, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai account for more than 10% of the country in other fields, of which automobiles, machinery, and electrical equipment account for the highest proportion of more than 30%.

However, things took a new turn this past weekend! On April 16, the Shanghai Economic and Information Commission issued the "Guidelines for the Prevention and Control of Epidemic Prevention and Control of Industrial Enterprises Resuming Work and Production in Shanghai (First Edition)", and the "white list" of the first batch of key resumption enterprises in Shanghai was also announced.

Specifically, a total of more than 660 companies are listed on the "white list" of resumption companies, which are concentrated in key industries such as automobile manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and biomedicine, as well as many operation guarantees and economic support enterprises. A partial list is as follows:

In summary, the first batch of more than 660 key enterprises to resume work is still very heavy. As the epidemic eases, the number of enterprises to resume work will increase rapidly, and the impact on the domestic economy will rapidly weaken.

Mainly good for 4 major sectors and ETFs

So how do these actions affect investors? It is mainly beneficial to these several sectors and related ETFs, which are logistics, auto parts, new energy vehicles, the pharmaceutical industry, and consumption in the order of criticality.

First, the shortest short-term link: is logistics ETF.

If the resumption of work by more than 660 companies in Shanghai is the first level, then logistics is the key.

After the spread of the epidemic, all parts of the country have strictly controlled traffic, and even some areas have directly closed expressways. In China, there are about 20 million truck drivers, who are responsible for more than 70% of the freight volume in the whole society. They slow down or even stop, and the whole country will be shut down.

The latest trend is that the central government not only pays great attention to this key point but also continues to focus on it. For example, today, the National Conference on Guaranteeing Logistics Flow was held in Beijing. Vice Premier Liu He of the State Council attended the conference and deployed important measures, which aroused heated discussions among many netizens.

Several core points of the policy on logistics guidance are as follows:

1. Fully issue and use the national unified pass, and the nucleic acid test results will be mutually recognized nationwide within 48 hours, and the closed-loop management of "collect, walk and chase" shall be implemented, and the passage shall not be restricted on the grounds of waiting for nucleic acid results;

2. Actively improve the working and living conditions of logistics practitioners, and provide financial support such as deferred loan repayment;

3. Leverage 1 trillion yuan through 200 billion yuan of technological innovation re-loans and 100 billion yuan of re-loans for transportation and logistics to build key industries such as automobiles, integrated circuits, consumer electronics, equipment manufacturing, agricultural materials, food, and medicine, And foreign trade enterprises whitelist.

This makes the logistics sector virtually occupy the C position of economic recovery, and logistics ETFs naturally bear the brunt.

At present, there are 2 logistics ETFs in China. The fund abbreviation, code, and today's turnover are as follows.

The two logistics ETFs track the same index: CSI Modern Logistics Index (930716). Including supply chain management companies, logistics companies, and express delivery companies, the index structure is still possible.

From the perspective of turnover, the logistics ETF (516910) with 37 million is naturally the first choice.

It should be noted that the short-term game of logistics ETF is strong, and attention should be paid to setting a stop-profit and stop-loss plan for short-term speculation.

Second, auto parts and new energy vehicles.

After logistics, there are auto parts and new energy vehicles. The impact of the epidemic on the automotive industry chain is also greater.

On the one hand, automobiles are one of the pillar industries of the national economy and have a profound impact on the upstream and downstream industry chains; on the other hand, Shanghai is the core manufacturing center of my country's automobile industry chain, and Shanghai's continuous sealing and control management have a more significant impact on the automobile supply chain.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, Shanghai will produce 2,833,200 vehicles in 2021, accounting for 10.68% of the total. Many domestic auto parts companies are densely distributed in the Yangtze River Delta region, and the added value of the auto industry in the Yangtze River Delta region accounts for 31.2%.

Therefore, the resumption of work and production in Shanghai will reduce the impact of the epidemic on the automotive industry chain. Last Friday, stimulated by the news that SAIC started the stress test for resumption of work and production, the auto parts sector also experienced obvious changes.

However, there are currently no ETFs related to auto parts in China, and there are quite a few new energy vehicle ETFs, which are also a high-prosperity growth track. In our "Xiaofeng ETF Smart Choice", there is also a 5% new energy vehicle ETF.

From a short-term technical perspective, there is a high probability that the new energy vehicle ETF will stabilize at the current point, and there will be a certain rebound in the market.

Third, the biopharmaceutical sector and biopharmaceutical ETFs.

Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the control of the epidemic has been continuously upgraded, and the production and operation of related pharmaceutical companies in Shanghai have also been greatly affected.

The data shows that Shanghai's biopharmaceutical industry is particularly developed! According to the "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Shanghai's Biopharmaceutical Industry", the scale of Shanghai's biopharmaceutical industry will reach 600 billion yuan in 2020, and there will be 409 biopharmaceutical industrial enterprises above the designated size in the city.

Shanghai also has several pharmaceutical industrial parks, including Zhangjiang Innovative Medicine Industrial Base, Oriental Beauty Valley, Bay Area Biomedical Port, North Shanghai Biomedical Industrial Park, Shanghai International Medical Park, Xuhui Fenglin Park, Qingpu Life Science Park, etc.

In addition, the resumption of work by enterprises is not a blind resumption of work. It requires multi-link and high-frequency new crown testing, which will stimulate the demand for testing and stockpiling of anti-epidemic items. For example, all employees are tested twice a day.

Therefore, new crown detection is also a potential link. And these testing companies mainly rely on biotechnology and are distributed in the biomedical sector.

Take a look at the short to medium-term technical picture:

In terms of subdivision, the biomedical ETF (512290) is in a good trend structure in the short and medium term. It has stepped back several times to confirm support, and just stood on the 5-day moving average, with a high probability of rebounding upwards.

Fourth, the consumer sector and consumer ETFs.

Finally, look at consumption, which is a more controversial part.

Lao Zhang's understanding is that for some mid-range and low-end rice, noodles, grains, oils, and meat, it will indeed promote consumption, and this is just a need in a rigid demand. The biggest proof is that the supermarket has been robbed. However, high-priced consumption such as liquor is really impossible to rectify.

Subdivided old iron estimates have also found that there is always a lot of liquor left on the platform for grabbing food.

Therefore, on the main line of the consumer sector and consumer ETFs, Lao Zhang suggests that everyone let go of wine ETFs, food and beverage ETFs, etc. that are too subdivided, and change to consumer ETFs with more dispersed and broader weights, which also include a certain amount of food. Beverage component stocks.

However, consumer ETFs have seen some gains and are in the higher range in recent years. When following up on consumer ETFs, pay attention to keeping your positions below 5%, and try to make arrangements on dips as much as possible to avoid chasing highs.

Today, I will write this to you first. How is the latest epidemic situation around you? Remember to leave a message at the end of the article to tell you about your situation.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. There are risks in the market, and investment should be cautious.

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